A sense of inevitability around the end of multilateralism.

 

Most troubling is the growing sense of inevitability surrounding this trajectory. Resignation has taken hold among political leaders, practitioners and civil society that the rules-based multilateral system is finished, giving way to raw power.


Budget cuts to international cooperation are treated as permanent while power politics push states toward rising military spending as the only “safe” investment, fuelling a security economy where conflict becomes an economic logic. Yet there is little discussion of what is really at stake: the hard-won progress achieved since the Second World War – not only the avoidance of large-scale conflict, but advances in shared science, health, human rights, gender equality, education and economic development. If this system unravels, we risk sliding back to the rivalry and instability it was built to prevent, reversing decades of progress – something which we will all pay for.

As military spending continue to rise, funding for humanitarian aid and Official Development Assistance (ODA) declines.

The result? 

Trust in the institutions and rule of law underpinning international cooperation is eroding as protectionism and conflicts proliferate. A Rockefeller Foundation 2025 survey illustrates that across 34 countries, only 55% backed international cooperation if it compromises national interests, and just 43% believed it served their personal interests. Support fell to 34% in Japan, 41% in Argentina, 49% in France, 50% in New Zealand, and 52% in Canada.

While majorities support cooperation in principle, particularly on jobs, trade, food and other global goods, confidence in multilateral institutions remains weak. Edelman’s Trust Barometer also shows trust in the UN declining in 23 of 27 countries between 2021 and 2024. The message is clear: support for international cooperation is conditional and fragile, and without visible results and clearer public engagement on its tangible benefits, it will continue to erode.